Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2012 17:20:04
Subject: Re: What "Math" Demos among the Physics Demos Do You Like?
You're right, I overlooked that. Replotting the results though
helped me to realize why this does not seem like a random
process. Flipping a coin or rolling dice are more familiar examples of
random processes. All outcomes are equally likely, so a plot of the
outcomes would be essentially a flat line. The time interval plot is
exponential. The article says that is expected but does not explain why...
At 3/2/2012 09:59 AM, you wrote:
>Hi Jerry. The first number was *one* time bin... 0 to 1 us. The rest
>were the sum of twenty bins... 1us to 20 us, 21 us to 40 us.... Etc.
>(I've been away at the APS show.)
> > -----Original Message-----
> > The meaning of the 2nd to last sentence is a little
> > difficult to understand. But if it is the case that the
> > shortest time is the most likely, then the data does not show
> > that by a long shot. The shortest time interval had only 12
> > counts, with a possibility of only a few more. Well below
> > the count in the next interval...
> > Jerry D
> > At 2/24/2012 07:54 AM, you wrote:
> > >The way I describe the physics of decay is that the
> > >decay is governed by a fixed probability per unit
> > >time that any particle will decay. It also applies to
> > >the time to the next pulse of any Poisson process.
> > >If the probability per unit time for decay or for some
> > >other Poisson event to happen is 10^3 per second, the mean
> > >lifetime or mean time to the next event is 1 ms.
> > >The probability of decay in the first microsecond
> > >would be approximately 10^-3 and if it hasn't decayed by then
> > >the probability would be the same for decay in the second
> > >microsecond, but the overall probability for it to happen in
> > >that second microsecond is 0.999 times smaller as that would be the
> > >probability it survives the first microsecond.
> > >Hence the shortest time is the most likely.
> > >
> > >Regards,
> > >Bob