Date: Mon Mar 9 19:19:36 2009

Author: Carter, Tom

Subject: Re: Climate Change - Is it Controversial?

Post:

John,

I'm afraid I'm going to disagree with you on your statements that
"we do not know the effect of water vapor" or the "sources or sinks of
CO2". We certainly do have good estimates on all those items. They
are spelled out in long, long, boring, boring detail in the Working
Group 1 report from the IPCC AR4. References, footnotes, good stuff.....

I agree with you that the earth is a complex system and so good
prediction require groups of experts coming to together with the best
data and the best methods. That's what the IPCC is. If you want to
respond that you don't believe anything that comes from this large
international body of scientists because they're all just a bunch of
political hack, well then....

What about the American Meteorlogicial Society (AMS)? Their
statement on climate change says they agree with IPCC
(http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/2007climatechange.html). "This statement
is consistent with the vast weight of current scientific understanding
as expressed in assessments and reports from the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change..." They're wrong also?

Or the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)?
(http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2007/0218am_statement.shtml) They
state
"global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and
it is a growing threat to society."

Or the National Academy of Science? (NAS)
(http://www.nationalacademies.org/onpi/06072005.pdf) They called for
"prompt action" on this issue.

All these are just political statements by people looking for
grants?


This is a lot like asking
"What will happen if you drive your car until it runs out of
gas?"

You could respond:
a) I don't know. I've never tried.

b) I don't know. My car is a large complex system and I don't
know the dwell angle of my electrical distribution system or the
pressure of my intake manifold.

c) I don't think anything will happen. All this business of
putting gas in your car is just a plot by large oil companies to get you
to use gas.

d) Sooner or later my car will come to a stop. Maybe not in 1.2
miles or 1.24 miles, but it will come to a stop.


Tom

------------------------------------------
Dr. Tom Carter
Physics
College of DuPage
(o) 630-942-3346
http://www.cod.edu/people/faculty/cartert

-----Original Message-----
From: tap-l-owner@lists.ncsu.edu [mailto:tap-l-owner@lists.ncsu.edu] On
Behalf Of John Hubisz
Sent: Monday, March 09, 2009 4:01 PM
To: tap-l@lists.ncsu.edu
Subject: Re: [tap-l] Climate Change - Is it Controversial?

We certainly can! Remember the satellite that fell in to the ocean near

Antarctica recently on launch? The reason for sending it was that we do

not understand the sources and sinks of CO2. We do not know the effect
of clouds. We do not know the effect of water vapor. What we do know
about feedback is that the Earth will moderate what ever happens. How
can we believe climate predictions 100 years into the future without
this knowledge?

To the second question , no! It has already been carried out. Is there

any evidence that the Earth has fried in the past as a result? CO2 was
much much higher in the past.

We are coming off an Ice Age - certainly it can be expected that the
temperature will rise a little.

John

Paul Nord wrote:
> John,
>
> Can we agree that the earth is a large poorly-understood system?
> And do we agree that the human race is in the process of performing a
> vast uncontrolled experiment on it?
>
> I'm hoping to see good results too.
>
> Paul
>
> On Mar 9, 2009, at 1:57 PM, John Hubisz wrote:
>
>> *Someone said,
>>
>> (Yes, it is cut and dry for the majority of scientists - but it is
not so
>> for the general public.)*
>>
>> *I responded,
>>
>> That is not true.* There are at least 32,000 scientists (9000
physicists) who do not think that it is "cut and dry" and more are
joining them as as scientists retire and finish out grants.
>>
>> And if the general public includes weathermen/meteorologists and
economists that adds to the group.
>>
>> John Hubisz
>>
>>
>> Bill Norwood wrote:
>>>
>>> Hi Taplers,
>>>
>>> I thought there was no remaining question
>>> that we are threatened by climate change
>>> that will do major physical and economic damage
>>> if we don't change our ways.
>>>
>>> But these guys, involved in the March 8-10, New York,
>>> International Conference on Climate Change,
>>> including some physicists, don't think so.
>>>
>>> http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2175921/posts
>>>
>>> Anybody got insight?
>>>
>>> Thanks, Bill Norwood, U of MD at College Park
>


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