Date: Thu, 27 Sep 2001 13:41:23 -0600
Author: Duane Warn
Subject: Re: Northern lights tonight.
Where did this mass ejection data come from? I looked at all of my sources and
didn't find anything. On 25 Sept at 19:00 the WIND satellite went bonkers
(magnetic fields) but the solar radio signals didn't show any excitement. So,
where can I find more data??? R2D2 is of no help.
Boise State U.
Steve Wonnell wrote:
> To add to Zig's message ...
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> Date: Tue, 25 Sep 2001 12:09:30 -0400 (EDT)
> From: Helen Hart
> Subject: Northern lights tonight.
> Hi, all -
> "coronal mass ejection is expected to impact the Earth near 18:00 UTC (2 pm
> EDT) on 25 September, give or take several hours."
> We can also expect disruption in radio communications for a day or so,
> starting when the mass ejection hits earth (about 2 pm EDT today).
> Aororal activity could last for up to 48 hours.
> Before dawn tomorrow is supposed to be the best time...
> Your best bet is to find a spot with the darkest area of sky
> generally towards the north.
> ------------- Begin Forwarded Message -------------
> Looks like there will be a very good chance for some northern lights
> tonight. The weather over here (in MD) as well as Indiana looks very
> favorable for viewing. Get out and have a look. The details are given
> MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
> ISSUED: 04:20 UTC, 25 SEPTEMBER 2001
> *** POTENTIAL FOR HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***
> A strong solar flare and high velocity Earthward directed coronal mass
> ejection were observed at 10:38 UTC (6:38 am EDT) on 24 September. The
> coronal mass ejection is expected to impact the Earth near 18:00 UTC (2 pm
> EDT) on 25 September, give or take several hours.
> The arrival of this disturbance is expected to produce periods of major
> to severe geomagnetic and auroral storm activity. This disturbance has the
> potential to be one of the largest observed this solar cycle. Observations
> well into the low latitude regions may be possible if predictions hold true.
> Observations will be best after local midnight in the northern
> hemisphere when the moon sets (or after about 3 am in Australia/New
> Forecasters suggest this disturbance has the potential to last as long
> as perhaps 48 hours. As a result, most middle latitude regions of the world
> should have at least one chance to observe activity. Whether this holds true
> remains to be seen. Forecasts of storm durations are an inexact science.
> This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 28 September. It
> will then be updated or allowed to expire.
> VALID BEGINNING AT: 15:00 UTC 25 SEPTEMBER
> VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 28 SEPTEMBER
> HIGH RISK PERIOD: 25 - 26 SEPTEMBER (UTC DAYS)
> --MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 25 - 28 SEPTEMBER
> PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 100, 40, 12 (25 - 28 SEPTEMBER)
> POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH
> POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS
> MINOR BELT = 36 TO 48 HOURS
> ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
> EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE, BECOMING NIL AFTER MOONSET NR
> OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO VERY
> AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
> CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO TO TEXAS TO
> TO MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA TO GEORGIA AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN REGIONS OF
> FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA.
> ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
> EXTREME NORTHERN MOROCCO TO EXTREME NORTHERN ALGERIA TO NORTHERN TUNISIA
> TO SOUTHERN ITALY TO GREECE TO EXTREME NORTHERN TURKEY TO GEORGIA TO
> NORTHERN AZERBAIJAN TO SOUTHWESTERN KAZAKSTAN TO NORTHERN UZBEKISTAN TO
> CENTRAL KAZAKSTAN TO EAST-CENTRAL KAZAKSTAN TO EXTREME NORTHERN MONGOLIA
> TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CHINA TO CENTRAL SAKHALIN. THERE IS A SMALL
> POSSIBILITY EXTREME NORTHERN JAPAN MAY WITNESS ACTIVITY.
> IN AUSTRALIA, ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY *SOUTH* OF A LIHE
> FROM NORTHERN NEW SOUTH WALES TO NORTHERN SOUTH AUSTRALIA TO CENTRAL
> WESTERN AUSTRALIA.
> ALL OF NEW ZEALAND HAS MAY OBSERVE ACTIVITY.
> IN SOUTH AFRICA, THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF SOUTH AFRICA (NEAR CAPE TOWN
> AND PORT ELIZABETH) *MAY* OBSERVE SOME ACTIVITY DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE
> STORM, IF PREDICTIONS HOLD TRUE.
> IN SOUTH AMERICA, SOUTHERN REGIONS OF CHILE AND ARGENTINA *MAY* SPOT
> PERIODS OF ACTIVITY SOUTH OF A LINE OF ROUGHLY 50 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE.
> THE FALKLAND ISLANDS MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.
> ------------- End Forwarded Message -------------
> Helen M. Hart
> FUSE Science Operations
> Bloomberg 140-C 410-516-4375
> If science is learned as a second language,
> does that mean everyone speaks with an accent?
> E. Verdill, "Science as a Second Language", 1994