Date: Tue, 25 Sep 2001 12:46:53 -0400 (EDT)

Author: Steve Wonnell

Subject: Northern lights tonight.

Post:


To add to Zig's message ...

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Date: Tue, 25 Sep 2001 12:09:30 -0400 (EDT)
From: Helen Hart
Subject: Northern lights tonight.

Hi, all -

"coronal mass ejection is expected to impact the Earth near 18:00 UTC (2 pm
EDT) on 25 September, give or take several hours."

We can also expect disruption in radio communications for a day or so,
starting when the mass ejection hits earth (about 2 pm EDT today).

Aororal activity could last for up to 48 hours.

Before dawn tomorrow is supposed to be the best time...

Your best bet is to find a spot with the darkest area of sky
generally towards the north.

enjoy!

Helen
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Bros,

Looks like there will be a very good chance for some northern lights
tonight. The weather over here (in MD) as well as Indiana looks very
favorable for viewing. Get out and have a look. The details are given
below.

Forrest

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

ISSUED: 04:20 UTC, 25 SEPTEMBER 2001

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

*** POTENTIAL FOR HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***

SYNOPSIS...

A strong solar flare and high velocity Earthward directed coronal mass
ejection were observed at 10:38 UTC (6:38 am EDT) on 24 September. The
coronal mass ejection is expected to impact the Earth near 18:00 UTC (2 pm
EDT) on 25 September, give or take several hours.

The arrival of this disturbance is expected to produce periods of major
to severe geomagnetic and auroral storm activity. This disturbance has the
potential to be one of the largest observed this solar cycle. Observations
well into the low latitude regions may be possible if predictions hold true.

Observations will be best after local midnight in the northern
hemisphere when the moon sets (or after about 3 am in Australia/New
Zealand).

Forecasters suggest this disturbance has the potential to last as long
as perhaps 48 hours. As a result, most middle latitude regions of the world
should have at least one chance to observe activity. Whether this holds true
remains to be seen. Forecasts of storm durations are an inexact science.

This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 28 September. It
will then be updated or allowed to expire.


VALID BEGINNING AT: 15:00 UTC 25 SEPTEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 28 SEPTEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 25 - 26 SEPTEMBER (UTC DAYS)
--MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 25 - 28 SEPTEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 100, 40, 12 (25 - 28 SEPTEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 36 TO 48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE, BECOMING NIL AFTER MOONSET NR
MIDNIGHT

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO VERY
GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO TO TEXAS TO
LOUISIANA
TO MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA TO GEORGIA AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN REGIONS OF
FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

EXTREME NORTHERN MOROCCO TO EXTREME NORTHERN ALGERIA TO NORTHERN TUNISIA
TO SOUTHERN ITALY TO GREECE TO EXTREME NORTHERN TURKEY TO GEORGIA TO
NORTHERN AZERBAIJAN TO SOUTHWESTERN KAZAKSTAN TO NORTHERN UZBEKISTAN TO
CENTRAL KAZAKSTAN TO EAST-CENTRAL KAZAKSTAN TO EXTREME NORTHERN MONGOLIA
TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CHINA TO CENTRAL SAKHALIN. THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY EXTREME NORTHERN JAPAN MAY WITNESS ACTIVITY.

IN AUSTRALIA, ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY *SOUTH* OF A LIHE
FROM NORTHERN NEW SOUTH WALES TO NORTHERN SOUTH AUSTRALIA TO CENTRAL
WESTERN AUSTRALIA.

ALL OF NEW ZEALAND HAS MAY OBSERVE ACTIVITY.

IN SOUTH AFRICA, THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF SOUTH AFRICA (NEAR CAPE TOWN
AND PORT ELIZABETH) *MAY* OBSERVE SOME ACTIVITY DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE
STORM, IF PREDICTIONS HOLD TRUE.

IN SOUTH AMERICA, SOUTHERN REGIONS OF CHILE AND ARGENTINA *MAY* SPOT
PERIODS OF ACTIVITY SOUTH OF A LINE OF ROUGHLY 50 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE.
THE FALKLAND ISLANDS MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.


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--------------------
Helen M. Hart
hart@pha.jhu.edu
FUSE Science Operations
Bloomberg 140-C 410-516-4375
http://fuse.pha.jhu.edu/~hart/

If science is learned as a second language,
does that mean everyone speaks with an accent?
E. Verdill, "Science as a Second Language", 1994
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